人民币升值对农产品进出口的影响(2005-2009年)

THE INFLUENCE OF RMB APPRECIATION ON AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS' IMPORT-EXPORT TRADE(2005-2009)

本文利用2005年7月-2009年7月的月度数据实证分析发现:人民币升值对农产品进出口的影响主要有升值预期影响和实际升值影响两种。人民币升值对农产品进出口均以促进作用为主,但影响随农产品进出口商对未来人民币升值预期的波动而波动。人民币汇率对农产品进出口预测误差的最大解释力度分别为11.9%和29.6%,农产品进出口均具有较强的稳定性,农产品进口对农产品出口预测误差的最大解释力度为19.5%。为促进农产品进出口的健康发展,政府应保持人民币汇率基本稳定或缓慢升值,科学引导农产品进出口商对人民币的未来升值预期,扶持农产品进出口企业"做强做大",减少人民币汇率波动对农产品进出口的冲击力度和影响幅度。

Through the empirical analysis with monthly data from July 2005 to July 2009,the article concludes that the influence of RMB appreciation on agricultural products＇import and export,including appreciation expectation and real appreciation.Generally speaking RMB appreciation will improve import and export of agricultural products,but the degree of influence fluctuates according in accordance with the variation of importers-exporters＇appreciation expectation.The maximum contribution of RMB exchange rates to import-export＇s predicted error of agricultural products is 11.9% and 29.6%.Agricultural products＇import and export are both comparatively stable.The maximum contribution of agricultural products import-export predicted error is 19.5%.In order to improve agricultural products＇import and export,the government should take measures to keep RMB exchange rate stable or maintain a slow appreciation,to guide the appreciation expectation of importers and exporters,help import-export companies grow stronger and bigger,and to reduce the impact of exchange rate fluctuation to agricultural products import and export.