我国寿险需求的结构分析

Analysis the Structure of Insurance Demand in China

在既有研究成果的基础上,结合我国实际情况,综合考虑了影响我国寿险需求的经济因素、政策因素、人口因素、科技因素,并引入虚拟变量来反映1995年我国《保险法》和一系列配套行政法规及部门规章制度制定以后对保险业的影响。以1990~2008年的相关数据为基础,运用多元线性回归、岭回归等统计方法,借助SPSS13.0统计软件,通过建立岭回归模型对上述因素进行定量分析,对寿险需求进行结构分析。结果表明：居民收入是寿险需求的决定性影响因素,而GDP、社会保障支出、科技投入、人口因素对寿险需求都有正的效应,而通货膨胀对寿险需求有抑制作用。

In this paper,firstly,the relevant fundamental theoretical knowledge of multiple linear regression analysis is outlined,then several factors which influence the growth of life insurance industry from the qualitative aspect were analyzed,such as GDP,residents disposable income,population and its structure,social security expenditure,inflation,and scientific and technological input.Secondly,the multiple linear regression method and ridge regression were applied to analyze the factors mentioned above by using the statistical software SPSS13.0 based on the data from 1990 to 2008.The ridge Regression method was introduced in the quantitative analysis to solve the muti-collinearity problem.The statistical examination and the economic examination were utilized to check the model.The results indicate that： the factor of residents disposable income has the most significant impact and positive effect on the life insurance needs.GDP,social security expenditure,population,scientific and technological input have positive effects on the life insurance needs because the regression coefficients between those factors and life insurance need are positive.The regression coefficient between the inflation rate and life insurance need is-0.101,that is to say,the positive inflation rate restrained the demand of life insurance.