基于预防性储蓄动机的中美股市财富效应比较研究——对牛市和熊市的检验

Comparison of Wealth Effects of both China and the U.S.Stock Markets Based on Precautionary Savings Motivation

本文以最能凸显财富效应的牛市和熊市期间的数据为样本,对中美两国股市的财富效应和各自主要指标进行了对比分析,发现美国股市虽然在相对规模、公司业绩、投资者行为、股利政策等方面远远优于中国股市,但是其财富效应只比中国股市略强,且自身统计性质不够显著。其原因是股票市场特有的波动性增强了投资者预防性储蓄动机,从而削弱了股市财富效应。最后分析了关于中国股市财富效应问题的政策含义。

Based on the theory of precautionary savings motivation,bull and bear data are used as the most typical examples to estimate the wealth effects of stock markets.By comparing the main indicators of both China and the U.S.stock markets,it is found that the wealth effects of the U.S.stock market is only slightly stronger than that of China,even if the relative size,business performance,investor behavior,dividend policy of the U.S.stock markets are far more superior to China＇s.The reason is that investors＇ precautionary savings motivation is strengthened by stock market＇s own volatility.Finally the policy implications about the wealth effects of China＇s stock market are analyzed.