廊坊市暴雨洪涝灾害风险评估与区划

Evaluation and Division for Risks of Rainstorm and Flood Disasters in Langfang of Hebei Province

2008年廊坊市气象灾情普查资料显示,暴雨洪涝灾害是气象灾害中造成损失最为严重的气象灾害,1949～2007年廊坊市由暴雨洪涝灾害造成的直接经济损失总计达1986.73亿元,占所有气象灾害造成直接经济损失的82.2%,严重影响着国家和地方经济的可持续发展。依据自然灾害系统理论和灾害风险评估原理,计算出廊坊市地理地貌状况指数(H)、暴雨洪涝发生强度指数(C)、暴雨洪涝灾害频率指数(R)、承灾体经济承灾能力指数(E)、经济损失指数(E')、生命易损指数(L)、生命损伤指数(L'),抗灾能力指数(K)等8个风险指数,并对其进行评估与分析的基础上,综合评价了廊坊市暴雨洪涝灾害风险程度的地域差异,得出各县市区的综合风险指数,并按极高、高、中、低等4级分区法对廊坊市暴雨洪涝灾害的综合风险指数进行区划。研究所形成的暴雨洪涝灾害风险度区划对本地防御暴雨洪涝和降低灾害损失,以及对暴雨洪涝灾害采取有效管理提供了比较客观的科学依据。

Results from the data of meteorological disasters in 2008 in Langfang show that the torrential rain and flood disasters are the most damageable. From 1949 to 2007,the direct economic losses caused by the torrential rain and flood disasters are 198. 673 billion, which are 82. 2% of those caused by all the meteorological disasters. The sustainable development of national and local economic is significantly affected by the torrential rain and flood disasters. Based on the system theories and principles of natural disasters evaluation,8 indexes are calculated,including topographic index （ H） ,intensity （ C） and frequency （ R） index of the torrential rain and flood disasters,economical disaster bearing capacity index （ E） ,economic loss index（ E＇） ,life vulnerability index（ L） ,life damage index（ L＇） and disaster relief index（ K） ,respectively. Combined disaster index were obtained for each county after systematically assessed the regional differences in risks of the torrential rain and flood disasters in Langfang,and 4 grades （ extremely high,high,medium and low） were used to divide the torrential rain and flood disasters. Studies on the division of the torrential rain and flood disasters can provide us scientific basis for the precaution of the torrential rain and flood disasters and reduction of their economic losses and taking effective measures to these disasters.