基于logistics模型的中国人口增长预测

Prediction of China's population increase based on logistics model

人口问题是个十分复杂的社会问题,准确的人口预测能为国家制定有效的相关人口政策提供重要依据。利用改进的logistics模型在2001年到2007人口统计数据基础上对中国人口进行预测,结果显示在2030年国家的人口数量达到一个峰值,通过与单纯logistics模型相比较,优势明显。

Population problem is a complicated social problem, and an accurate population prediction may provide important reference for national population policies. On the basis of population statistics from 2001 to 2007, the improved logistics model is used to predict Chinag population, and the result shows that by 2030 China＇s population will have reached a peak value. In comparison with the original logistics model, the above prediction is better.