摘要
对地区全社会用电量进行需求分析,找出全社会总用电量与行业用电量之间的关系。通过SPSS软件用主成分分析法对某地区行业用电量指标进行主成分分析,找出若干个重点行业用电量(若干个个变量)的主成分因子,然后再通过回归分析法对主成分因子和全社会用电量进行回归分析,建立电力需求模型。实例分析证明,这种由少数几个行业用电量来预测全社会总用电量的方法,可得到较好的预测效果。
The whole social electricity demand in an area is analyzed to find the relationship between the whole social electricity demand and electricity consumption of various industries.The principle component analysis on regional industry electricity consumption index is carried out based on SPSS,and the principle component factors of electricity consumption of several main industries（some variables） are found.Then the principle component factor and whole social electricity demand is analyzed by using of regression analysis method,and electricity demand model is built.The example shows that better forecast results of whole social electricity demand are obtained based on few industry electricity consumption.
出处
《现代电力》
2010年第6期83-87,共5页
Modern Electric Power
基金
陕西省电力科学院研究项目
关键词
主成分分析
特征值
回归分析法
用电量
需求模型
principal component analysis
eigenvalue
regression analysis
electricity
demand model
