改进GM(1,1)模型在舰船维修费用预测中的应用

Application of Improved Grey Theory in the Cost Forecasting of Vessel Maintenance

基于灰色系统理论,使用海军舰船维修费用历史数据建立初值修正的GM(1,1)模型,利用少量数据中的显信息和隐信息,避免复杂的相关关系,克服了原始数据的离散性,得到较高精度的拟合效果,并对海军舰船维修费用进行短期预测。将预测结果加入等维信息模型,对未来费用支出进行动态预测。结果表明:其精度优于传统模型。

Based on the gray system theory,an improved GM（1,1） model after the initial value modifying is presented on the history data of vessel maintenance cost.The discreteness of original data is over come and the high-precise predicted result is received under the condition of a small amount of data.And a short-term forecast according to the vessel maintenance cost was received through the model.Then,this forecasting data was introduced into the equality dimension model to forecast dynamically the future cost,and the result implies that its＇ superior to the traditional mode.