中国黄金市场价格影响因素的实证研究

Influence Factors on Gold Price in Chinese Market: an Empirical Study

在国内黄金市场全面开放,黄金市场现货与期货并存的背景下,选取影响黄金价格的主要因素,以2006-2010年的月度数据为研究样本,运用普通最小二乘法建立多元回归模型,对影响我国黄金市场价格的因素进行实证研究,并利用Granger因果关系检验了黄金市场价格变动与其它金融市场的关联性。研究结果表明,黄金市场与外汇、货币、资本市场间存在着较强的联动性,黄金期货的推出对我国黄金市场价格波动产生了较大的影响。

Under the background of open domestic gold market where gold coexist with gold futures,this paper selects the main influence factors on gold price,uses 2006——2010 monthly data as study sample,establishes the multiple regression model through Ordinary Least Squares method and makes the empirical study on influence factors of gold price in Chinese market,meanwhile the paper examines the relevance between the gold market price fluctuation and other markets.The findings indicate that linkage between the gold market and the foreign exchange,currency,capital market is strong,and the gold futures have influenced the gold price in China.