乡镇企业与股份制商业银行长短期互动的定量分析

Quantitative Analysis of Long and Short Term Interactions Between Town-village Enterprises and Joint-stock Commercial Banks

只有在乡镇企业与股份制商业银行之间形成真正的良性互动,才有可能从根本上缓解乡镇企业融资难这一顽疾。我们将两者之间的互动分为短期和长期两个方面,运用格兰杰因果关系检验、协整检验和ECM模型对其进行定量分析。结果表明:从短期看,股份制商业银行带动了乡镇企业的成长,但乡镇企业却没有促进股份制商业银行的发展;从长期看,两者之间存在且只有一个均衡关系。一旦偏离这一均衡,就存在着自我修正机制,使其从非均衡状态向均衡状态发展。只有有针对性地采取多方面的措施,才能使两者形成良性互动。

Only really favorable interactions come into being between town-village enterprises （TVES） and joint-stock commercial banks （JSCBS） , it can financing difficulties of TVES possibly ultimately be. The interaction between them is divided into short and long term, which is analyzed quantitatively by Granger causality test, co-integration test and ECM models. The results indicate： in the short run, the growth of TVES is promoted by JSCBS, while the development of JSCBS is not promoted by TVES. In the long run, there is only one equilibrium between them. What＇ s more, once the equilibrium is deviated, the disequilibrium will go toward the equilibrium by self-correction mechanisms. Only measures in several aspects are adopted purposely, do favorable interactions between them come into being.