碳关税对我国国际收支“双顺差”的影响

The Potential Effect of Carbon Tariff upon "Double-Surplus" of Balance of Payment in China

碳关税的全面实施会通过净出口渠道和长期资本流入渠道影响到我国的国际收支:其中,经常账户收支差额减少有限,不会改变其顺差格局;资本金融账户收支差额会大幅度变化,其顺差地位可能发生扭转。因此,碳关税实施有利于我国当前国际收支"双顺差"的调节;但为了避免碳关税对资本金融账户的过度冲击,我们在当前应一方面积极引导FDI投资领域的转向,提升外资质量;另一方面积极推动加工贸易的技术升级,推动生产方式的"绿色化"转型。

The entire implement of carbon tariff will affect our country＇s balance of payment through the outlet of net import and long-term capitals： meanwhile, the decrease of current account balance is limited, which will not change the surplus status of it; capital and financial account balance will decrease largely, and the surplus status will be changed. So the implement of carbon tariff benefits the adjustment of ＂double-surplus＂ of balance of payment of China; but in order to avoid the excessive impact of carbon tariff on capital and financial account, our government should actively lead FDI to change investment fields, and improve foreign capital; on the other hand, our government should drive the technology upgrade of processes trade, and promote production mode to transform into green production.