新兴市场外汇储备增长的决定因素——基于东亚和拉美的实证比较研究

The Determinant Factors of Emerging Markets′ Foreign Reserves Accumulation——Positive Comparative Analysis of East Asia and Latin America

以东亚和拉美两个地区为样本,理论分析和计量检验结果表明:全球产业转移所导致的贸易规模扩大和经常账户盈余积累等是新兴市场外汇储备规模扩大的主要决定因素。而东亚比拉美保有更多外汇储备的原因是两个地区发展模式的差异所致,即东亚依附于重商主义的出口导向战略及其出口商品结构不仅能够增加出口,而且获得经常账户盈余的稳定性也要强于拉美,东亚的新兴工业化经济体在外汇储备积累上表现出了一定的预防性动机。

Based on samples of East Asia and Latin America economies,theoretical analysis and empirical investigation show that actual variables such as trade volume enlargement and current account balances accumulation which are arising from international industries transfer are main determinant factors of emerging markets′ reserves increase.East Asian region hold more reserves than Latin America as development modes of above two regions are different.East Asian export promotion strategy originating from mercantilism and trade products structure not only enlarge export share of the region,but also attain more stable current account balances than Latin America.Nevertheless,newly industrialized economies of East Asia stored reserves by purpose of precautionary responsiveness to crisis in a certain degree.