亚太地区对美国出口、汇率波动及其影响

Asia-pacific Exports to the United States,Currency Movements and Empirical Relationship

本文首先分析亚洲主要经济体对美国出口的商品构成,确定这些经济体在美国市场的竞争关系;利用日数据分析这些经济体货币的波动特点,采用协整技术建立汇率波动与对美国出口的数量关系。研究结果表明,汇率变化对出口贸易影响非常小,本币升值不可能减少经常项目的贸易顺差。

The holding of huge foreign exchange reserves by Asian leading economies,who have enjoyed long-time trade surpluses with the United States,is unfairly blamed for the global economic imbalance by some Western powers.In other words,they claim that ＂ non-appreciation＂ of Asian currencies is hurting the global recovery.The thesis starts with a descriptive analysis of the export composition of these Asian economies to identify their competition in the United States,then utilizes daily return data to compare volatilities of these currencies against U.S.dollar,and finally establishes quantitative relationships by means of co-integration technique.Our finding shows that the effect of exchange rates on exports is minimal and that the appreciation of the local currency will not improve the U.S.current account deficits.