燃煤碳潜在排放因子的分析与预测

Analysis and Prediction on Carbon Potential Emission Factors of Combusted Coal

通过对不同煤种的碳潜在排放因子统计分析,表明碳潜在排放因子随煤变质程度的加深呈明显的V字型变化趋势。在对碳潜在排放因子与不同基准常规煤质指标间相关关系研究的基础上,挑选出相关性较密切的煤质指标,通过对1 676个实测煤质数据的多元线性回归分析,获得了碳潜在排放因子的回归方程,实现了利用常规煤质数据来预测碳潜在排放因子。在此基础上,将中国煤炭按煤变质程度分为五大类,并对每一分类的碳潜在排放因子进行了回归分析,使得回归方程的精度得以提高。

The statistic and analysis on the coal potential emission factors of the different coal carbons showed that the potential emission factors of the carbon would have an obvious V type variation tendency with the coal metamorphic degree increased.Based on the study on the relevant relationship between the potential emission factors of the carbon and different reference normal coal quality index,the relevant closed coal quality indexes were collected.With the multi element linear regression analysis on 1 676 measured coal quality data,the regression equation of the carbon potential emission factors was obtained.The conventional coal quality data could be applied to predict the carbon potential emission factors.According to the coal metamorphic degree,the coal in China could be divided into five major grades.A regression analysis on the carbon potential emission factor of each grade was conducted and thus the accuracy of the regression equation was improved.