基于四阶段法的旅游交通量预测

Forecast of Tourism Traffic Volume Based on Four Stages Forecast

公路旅游交通是公路交通运输业的重要组成部分,随着现代旅游业的发展,公路旅游交通在公路交通运输业中的地位日益显现。然而目前缺乏有效的预测公路旅游交通量的方法。采用四阶段分析理论,以利川和万州地区高速公路建设为分析对象,在分析区域社会经济、旅游人数和旅游产业发展趋势的基础上,预测区域旅游交通总量,在分析基年旅游交通量分布的基础上确定各路段的交通出行量。有效地预测了利川和万州地区高速公路建设中的旅游交通量。

Highway tourism traffic is a very important part of road transportation.With the development of modern tourism,highway tourism traffic has become increasingly conspicuous in road transportation.However,there is a lack of effective prediction method for highway tourism traffic.The theory of four stages forecast is adopted in this paper.Taking the construction of highway in Lichuan and Wanzhou area as an example,based on comprehensive analysis of regional society and economy,tourist number and the development of tourism industry,predict regional highway tourism traffic amount.Based on analysis of distribution of highway tourism traffic volume in the basic year,the amount of each section is determined.The highway tourism traffic volume of Lichuan and Wanzhou area is efficiently forecasted.