中国储投缺口结构对经常项目顺差的影响

The Effect of the S-Ⅰ Gaps Struture on the Surplus of Current Accout in China

本文运用描述性统计、敏感性分析及因果关系检验方法,以1982～2009年的相关数据为样本,分析居民、企业、政府三个部门储蓄投资缺口结构与经常项目顺差的关系及部门储投缺口的影响因素。研究发现:经常项目顺差由高投资率背后更高的储蓄率造成,居民部门储投缺口贡献度最大,企业部门和政府部门储投缺口大部分年度为负;企业部门对经常项目变动决定作用最大,政府部门对经常项目顺差贡献最稳定;居民部门储投缺口变化主要取决于储蓄变化,过高的边际储蓄倾向是居民高储蓄的原因;2005年后企业储投缺口扩大源于储蓄占GDP比增加和投资占GDP比减少,劳动力成本增长速度过低和投资效率下降分别是储蓄比增加和投资比下降的原因;"以存量支"式的投资特征导致了政府储投缺口的稳定性。

This paper analyzes the relationship between the S-I gaps structure for household,enterprise and government sector and the surplus of current account,and the factors driving gaps.It is found that the surplus of current account is coursed by the positive savings and investment gap,the gap in household sector contribute most for the surplus,the one in enterprise sector and government sector have negative contribution,the gap in enterprise sector explains most of the variation of current account over time,on the contrary the one in government sector explains less.The change of household gaps is mostly determined by the variation of household savings,high household savings rate is coursed by high marginal propensity to save,the widening gap in enterprise sector since 2005 is the result of low labor cost and low efficiency of investment.The rule of 'investment based on the savings' makes government gap stationary.