近20年京津廊坊地区城市增长模拟和预测研究

SIMULATION AND PREDICTION OF URBAN SPATIAL GROWTH IN THE PAST 20 YEARS IN JING-JIN-LANG AREA

利用遥感和GIS技术获取历史数据,采用SLEUTH模型,对京津廊坊地区城市增长和土地利用演化进行模拟。模拟过程中,通过获取模型对于城市土地利用演化模拟的最佳模型参数系列,实现SLEUTH模型的本地化,重建了研究区1985—2008年城市土地利用历史动态演化过程,并模拟其未来动态扩展趋势,为研究区城市发展和城市规划提供科学依据。最后,通过对社会经济驱动因子进行主成份分析,得出影响北京、天津和廊坊市城市扩展的第一主成份因子分别是人口—文化—经济因子、经济因子和经济—环境因子。

Based on the historical data that are extracted from a time series of satellite images,SLEUTH has been employed to simulate the urban growth and land use evolution in Jing-Jin-Lang area.To make SLEUTH applicable to Jing-Jin-Lang area,a number of calibrations should be done for the model.After calibrations,SLEUTH is used for ＂backcasting＂ of urban extent and land use/cover change with spatiotemporal interpolation during 1985 to 2008.The simulated results are analyzed with historical data.On this basis,SLEUTH used as a forecasting tool to simulate the process of LUCC during 2009 to 2020 respectively.Using SLEUTH model,urban growth tendency in future was forecasted.The results indicated that,margin growth occupied dominant station relative to other growth method.In future,it was going to grow outward continually taking old urban area as the center all the same.At the same time,it was traffic system nowadays that was going to have an important influence to urban development in Jing-Jin-Lang area.At last,through using qualitative and quantitative method,urban expansion driving factors were discussed.Natural environment,national macroscopic policy regulation,traffic,development zone construction and special factors were important to urban growth in Jing-Jin-Lang area.The principal component analysis showed that,population-culture-economy factor and economy factor and economy-environment factor was respectively the first principal component to influence urban growth in Beijing and Tianjin and Langfang.