摘要
阐述了小型水库溃坝原因与溃坝的失效链,以沙田水库为例,建立了溃坝的失效树分析模型,计算了不同时间情景下水库溃坝概率,并分析了影响溃坝的风险因子和预防溃坝风险的主要策略。结果表明,沙田水库在未来40 a基本可防止溃坝事件,加强风险管理对控制水库蓄水水位和预防溃坝风险均有指导意义。
Dam break reasons and failure chains of small reservoirs are summarized with taking Shatian Reservoir for an example.FTA analysis model of dam break is built.Dam break probability of reservoir is calculated under different temporal scenes.Then risk factors for influence of dam break and main strategies of preventing dam break are analyzed.The results show that Shatian Reservoir does not appear dam break events in future 40 years.Strengthening risk management has positive meanings to control reservoirs impounding level and prevent dam break risk.
出处
《水电能源科学》
北大核心
2011年第2期41-43,共3页
Water Resources and Power
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(10772201)
关键词
小型水库
溃坝
失效树
失效概率
风险分析
small reservoir
dam break
fault tree
probability of failure
risk analysis
