城际政府公共投资策略互动行为及其形成机制——基于278个地级及以上城市数据的实证分析

Strategic Interaction of Public Investment Among City Governments and Its Formation Mechanism:Empirical Study Based on the Data of 278 Prefecture-level or Other Large-and-medium-sized Cities

文章基于2007年收支分类改革后新的预算科目和278个地级及以上城市的数据,运用SLM、SEM、Durbin和SAC空间计量模型以及ML估计和工具变量GMM估计方法,通过设定相邻、地表距离和最临近三种空间地理矩阵以及工业化水平、土地出让金收入占比、房地产投资占比、城市化水平和FDI五种经济变量空间矩阵,对当前城市政府间公共投资类财政支出的策略互动情况进行了评估与甄别。结果发现,城市政府在相邻地理位置上的显著互动———以策略互补为主,具有特定的外部性范围和变化轨迹,而工业禀赋型、"土地"财政型和FDI型策略互动的影响则具有同质性,且总体低于以外溢效应和标尺效应为主要源泉的地理空间位置上的策略互动水平。最后,文章对相应理论和政策含义进行了探讨。

Based on new budget subjects after income and expenditure elassification reform in 2007, and the data of 278 prefecture-level or other large-and-medium-sized cities, this paper applies spatial econometric models such as SLM, SEM, Durbin and SAC, ML estimation and instrumental variables GMM estimation methods to evaluate current strategic interaction of public investment among city governments through three geographical space matrices and a space matrix containing five economic variables, namely industrialization level, the percentage of land transfer income, the percentage of real estate investment, urbanization level and FDI. The results show that strategic interaction among city governments with regard to adjacent locations is featured by strategic complementarity and has specific external scope and changing trend, while the strategic interaction based on industrial en- dowment, land and FDI is homogeneous and its entire level is lower than the one of strategic interaction with regard to locations caused by spillover effects and yardstick effects, At the end, it discusses corresponding theories and policy implications.