开放经济对工业结构变迁的影响——基于浙江省的分析

Open Economy and Industry Structure Changing: Analysis on Zhejiang Province

在分析1985-2009年浙江省工业经济发展相关数据的基础上,对开放经济条件下出口贸易、国内消费等需求因素和技术、资本投入等供给因素对浙江省工业结构变迁的影响进行了研究,证实了开放经济发展对浙江省工业结构变迁的促进作用,检验了出口贸易和外商直接投资与浙江省重工业化发展之间的因果关系,认为开放经济的深化发展是浙江省工业化水平提高的重要因素、吸收外商直接投资是浙江省重工业化发展的重要原因,通过加强研发和创新促进浙江省工业结构变迁仍存在较大空间,诱导工业结构变迁的政策应相机调整等。

On the basis of quantitative analysis of industrial development of Zhejiang province with the data of 1985-2009, this paper studies the impact of demand factors （such as export trade, domestic consumption） and supply factors （such as technology, capital input） on the industrial structural changing in the open economy, verifies the promoting role of open economy to the industrial structural changing in Zhejiang, tests the causality relationship between export trade ＆ FDI and development of heavy industry in Zhejiang, and thinks that the deep development of open economy is an important factor for the improvement of industrial level in Zhejiang, FDI introducing is a vital reason for the development of heavy industry in Zhejiang, and it exists bigger room for the transformation of industrial structure in Zhejiang by way of R＆D and innovation, the policies aiming at inducing the industrial structure transformation should be adjusted according to the actual situation.