国际资本流动“突然停止”、银行危机及其产出效应

The "Sudden Stops" of International Capital Flow,Banking Crisis and their Output Effects

国际资本流动“突然停止”是新兴市场国家金融全球化和金融开放早期面临的重要障碍。本文运用20个新兴市场国家1976～2006年间的面板数据．考察“突然停止”和银行危机对宏观经济产出的影响。研究发现：“突然停止”或银行危机都不必然导致产出的大幅下降：如果银行部门不发生系统性的危机，“突然停止”对产出没有显著影响；给定国际资本流动不出现大幅的逆转，银行危机对产出的影响也不显著：“突然停止”和银行危机的叠加则对产出造成严重的负面冲击，经济增长率显著下滑。研究结论有重要的政策含义．表明构建一个稳固的银行体系对于一国金融开放和金融自由化过程中的经济安全至关重要．

The ＂ Sudden Stops＂ of international capital flow has been considered as a major obstacle faced by developing countries in their early stage of financial globalization and opening practice. By using a broad sample of emerging countries, this paper assesses the impact of ＂Sudden Stops＂ and banking crises on the macroeconomic output. We find that ＂Sudden Stops＂ or banking crises would not necessarily cause output collapse. In the absence of banking crises （Sudden Stops）, a Sudden Stops （banking crises） would not by itself have significant impact on output. The ＂ twin crises＂ （simultaneous occurrence of Sudden Stops and banking （：rises） , however, would have a significant negative impact on output, such as reducing the output by about 5 percent in one year period. The important policy implication of our research is that to construct a strong banking sector which can withstand the negative fallout of capital flight is essential for the economic security of countries that open their economies to the international financial flows.