摘要
近年来,铁矿石价格的持续飙升给我国经济造成了巨大的影响。本文采用国家信息中心与澳大利亚MONASH大学共同开发的SICGE模型对进口铁矿石涨价的影响进行了模拟。结果显示,与2010年基准情景相比,铁矿石价格上涨90%对我国总体经济影响很小(-0.37%)。从物价水平角度来看,与现有文献的结论有很大的不同,铁矿石价格上涨并没有导致输入型的通胀,模拟结果2010年整体物价水平有小幅的下降(-1.96%)。模拟结果也表明,这种生产要素价格上涨确实会向下游企业传导,但是这种传导效应只集中在大量直接使用铁矿石的部门(炼铁、炼钢、钢压延加工业等),对终端消费品(房地产、汽车、家电等)价格影响很小。
Since 2010,the continuously rising price of iron ore has caused substantial impact on China＇s macro-economy.To measure its impact,this paper simulates the impact of rising imported iron ore prices through the SICGE model jointly developed by State Information Center and the MONASH University.The results show that compared with the baseline scenario in 2010,the impact of iron ore prices rose 90% on China＇s overall economy is very small（-0.37%）.From the price level＇s point of view,iron ore prices did not lead to imported inflation,the overall price level in 2010 showed a slight decrease（-1.96%）,it is very different from the conclusions of the existing literature.The simulation re-sults also show that prices of production factors will indeed transfer to the down-stream sectors,but the conduction effect is concentrated in a lot of sectors（iron,steel making,steel rolling processing industry,etc.） directly using the iron ore,and the price impact on final consumption goods（real estate,automobiles,house-hold appliances,etc.） is very small.Finally,the paper argues that the government should encourage iron and steel enterprises to implement ＂going out＂ strategy to increase overseas markets share,while accelerating the integration of the steel industry to improve industrial concentration,and thus further enhance the voice of iron ore negotiations.
基金
教育部人文社科项目:对非农业官方发展援助的国际比较及三方合作模式研究(09YJAGJW005)
对外经济贸易大学"区域经济学重点培育学科建设项目"资助
