人民币长期均衡汇率的实证研究

Empirical Research on Long Term RMB Equilibrium Exchange Rate

当前,人民币汇率问题已变成国际社会普遍关注的热点问题。一方面,美国等主要贸易国家要求人民币升值,而另一方面,我国的经济增长仍不稳固,汇率形成机制还不够成熟。如何选择汇率政策的调整方向,成为中国货币当局需要面对的重要问题。本文以实证模型为基础,结合协整分析的方法,运用2000-2009年的季度数据,求出了长期均衡汇率值,并与现实的人民币汇率相比较,进一步分析了人民币汇率问题,同时提出了政策建议。

In recent years,the RMB exchange rate issue is becoming a hot focus for the international community.On the one hand,the major international trading partners like US have put much pressure on RMB appreciation.On the other hand,the economic growth in China is not very steady and the formation mechanism of RMB exchange rate is not mature at this stage.So how to choose the right foreign exchange policy becomes a very important issue for the regulator and the currency authority.This paper uses the co-integration test method based on the 2000-2009 historical data to get the long term equilibrium RMB exchange rate.And then do the comparison with the real historical exchange rate to find the difference and the reason behind this.Finally,the paper makes a suggestion for the currency authority based on the findings and analysis.