摘要
根据历史上有关气象的文字记载,结合大气科学发展的历史和现状,以深入浅出的方式回顾了气象预报制作方法的变更与发展,概述了当前业务预报的水平和相关研究的主要进展。针对数值预报,讨论了导致气象预报结果不确定性的主要原因,并通过介绍集合预报,对公众应当如何理解和使用预报产品提出了看法。
The variation and improvement of meteorological forecast method are reviewed in a simple and explicit way,based on historical records on meteorological phenomena and a brief development history and status of atmospheric sciences.The present operational prediction skill and main advancements of the relevant researches are summarized as well.Uncertainties in the result of meteorological forecast are discussed from the perspective of numerical forecasting.Moreover,the way for public to understand and utilize ensemble forecast products is also presented by explaining the principles of ensemble forecast in detail.
出处
《气象》
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第1期1-13,共13页
Meteorological Monthly
基金
公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY200706001)资助
关键词
气象预报
数值预报
不确定性
可预报性
集合预报
meteorological forecast
numerical forecasting
uncertainty
predictability
ensemble forecast
