基于非对称CARCH模型的北京气温短期波动规律分析

Micro-Aspect Analysis on Beijing's Temperature Change Based on Asymmetrical CARCH Model

为了研究北京市气温资料的短期波动特征,使用非对称CARCH模型对北京市1952—2006年期间的日平均气温、日最低气温和日最高气温进行了建模,结果表明北京市气温总体上具有上升趋势;但日最高气温、日平均气温上升幅度有限,日最低气温上升幅度较大;日最高气温、日平均气温波动幅度有限,日最低气温波动幅度较大;升温会使气温整体的变化幅度加大,而降温对气温变化的影响更多体现在日最低气温上。

In order to study the microscopic features of Beijing＇s temperature data,an asymmetrical CARCH model is set up for Beijing＇s daily average temperature data,daily minimum temperature data and daily maximum temperature data during 1952-2006.The results show that Beijing＇s temperature has a rising trend overall.However,daily maximum temperature and daily average temperature will rise in a limited range,and daily minimum temperature will rise in a larger extent;the changing ranges of daily maximum temperature and daily average temperature will be in a limited extent,but the changing range of daily minimum temperature will be in a larger scope.Temperature warming makes sense to the rising trend on all scopes,but cooling only makes sense to the daily minimum temperature.