摘要
利用向量自回归(VAR)技术,从收支一体化的角度对1978年以来我国政府公共支出和税收政策变化对经济增长的冲击以及这些冲击在GDP长期走向中的解释能力作了系统的实证研究.实证分析结果表明,我国改革开放以来的财政政策队经济运行的宏观调控方面冲击效应明显,政府的收支行为对经济的长期走向有一定的解释能力.
This paper characterizes the dynamic effects of shocks in government spending and taxes on Chinese economy's long run growth since 1978.It dose so by using a VAR approach.Identification is achieved by using institutional information about the tax and spending.The results show positive government spending shocks as having a positive effect on output,and positive tax shocks as having a negative effects..Government fiscal policy has an significant effect for economy's long run growth.
出处
《数学的实践与认识》
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第2期1-8,共8页
Mathematics in Practice and Theory
基金
国家软科学项目(2006GXQ3D139)