重温20世纪80年代美国学界有关“美国衰落论”的争论——兼及当下的“美国衰落论”

A Review of the 1980s Debate in American Studies over the "Decline of the United States"-and the Present "Theory of American Decline"

本文对美国学界始于20世纪80年代关于美国是否衰落所引发的辩论进行了分析介绍,特别对其中具有代表性意义的两位学者——"美国衰落论"的主张者保罗.肯尼迪与"美国复兴论"的倡导者约瑟夫.奈——的观点进行了分析对比,并就此次辩论对于我们如何看待今天美国的力量状况,以及当下的"美国衰落论"等问题提出了自己的看法。文章认为,此次辩论所涉及的一系列理论性问题——历史类比方法的适用性问题,如何看待历史发展的延续与变化之间的关系问题,如何量度一国之力量问题,硬权力与软权力的关系问题,文化与文明因素在国际政治中的影响与作用等问题——在今天依然具有一定的学术与社会价值,值得继续关注。

This article presents an introduction to and analysis of the academic debate initiated in the United States in the 1980s over American decline. The article focuses especially on two key scholars, the first being Paul Kennedy, the key proponent of the Theory of American Decline, and the second Joseph Nye, the key advocate of the Theory of American Revival. The article offers a comparative analysis of these two theories. It argues that the theoretical questions raised in this debate continue to have both academic and broader social importance today, and warrant continued attention. These include： the question of the applicability of the historical comparative method, the question of how to view the relationship between continuity and change in historical development, and of how to measure a state＇s power, the relationship between hard and soft power, and the influence and impact of culture on international politics. In closing, the article offers some thoughts regarding how we might appraise contemporary American power and about which parts of this earlier debate might apply to the current discussions of the ＂Theory of American Decline. ＂