摘要
为了研究天气季节性变化对机场到达容量分布的影响,统计得到基于历史天气数据的容量概率分布.在1-参数到达容量分布模型的基础上,建立了基于容量概率分布的周期时间序列模型.根据周期时间序列中月的相似容量概率分布特征,用遗传算法得到4个季:(3,4)、(5,6,7,8,9)、(10,11)和(12,1,2),进而求出各季的容量分布和概率.研究结果表明:包含5、6、7、8和9月的层云季节下降容量持续8 h的概率为25.76%,正常容量持续8 h的概率仅为9.64%.根据容量概率分布得到季的天气季节性影响与实际情况相符.
In order to study the effects of weather seasonal changes on airport arrival capacity distribution,the capacity probabilistic distribution of historical weather was obtained through statistical analysis of the original weather data.A periodic time-series model based on the capacity probabilistic distribution was built on the basis of the 1-parameter arrival capacity distribution model.Then,according to the similarity of the monthly capacity probabilistic distribution in the periodic time series,months are classified by genetic algorithm into four seasons：（3,4）,（5,6,7,8,9）,（10,11） and（12,1,2）,and the capacity distribution and probability of each season are obtained.The results indicate that during the stratus season from May to September,the probability of reduced arrival capacity for 8 hours is 25.76% while normal capacity for 8 hours is 9.64%.The weather effects of the seasons based on the capacity probabilistic distribution are in accordance with the actual situation.
出处
《西南交通大学学报》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第1期154-161,共8页
Journal of Southwest Jiaotong University
基金
国家863计划资助项目(2006AA12A105)
国家自然科学基金资助项目(60972006)
关键词
空中交通管理
容量分布
容量概率分布
时间序列
遗传算法
air traffic management
capacity distribution
capacity probabilistic distribution
time series
genetic algorithm
