基于三角模糊和故障树理论的西气东输管道第三方破坏风险分析

The Risk Analysis on the Third Party Damage to West-to-East Natural Gas Transmission Pipeline Based on the Theory of Triangle Fuzzy and Fault Tree

依据第三方施工对管道造成破坏的影响因素,建立故障树。针对基本事件发生概率不确定的情况下,引入三角模糊理论,将基本事件的发生概率描述为模糊数,采用正态的R-L模糊数为参照函数,修正了各基本事件的发生概率,通过模糊运算规则得出第三方施工对管道破坏概率的区间值。应用中值法确定各底事件的模糊重要度,并对此进行排序,确定主要影响因素,最后提出相应的措施以减少第三方施工对管道的破坏。

The fault tree is built up based on the influencing factors of third party construction damage to natural gas pipeline.With the uncertainty of the occurrence probability of basic events,the triangle fuzzy theory is introduced into the research.The probability of basic events is described as the fuzzy number while the positive R-L fuzzy number is used as the reference function,and then the occurrence probability of basic events has been modified.Meanwhile,the interval value of the probability of third party construction damage to the pipelines has been concluded from the regulation of fuzzy calculation.The median algorithm is applied to the determination about the fuzzy significant degree of different bottom events,followed by ordering them and determining major influencing factors.At last,some corresponding measures are presented so as to reduce the third party construction damage to pipelines.