“十二五”至2030年我国经济增长前景展望

China's Economic Prospect for the 12^(th) Five-Year Plan Period and 2030

综合考虑未来国内外影响经济增长的因素及其变化,本文采用可计算一般均衡模型模拟了中国经济增长的三种情景。结果显示"十二五"期间经济增长速度可望接近8%左右,中长期内中国经济仍然具有较快增长的潜力;未来经济增长的主要风险在于经济发展的协调性较差,资源环境压力不断加大;能否发挥经济增长潜力的关键在于能否实现发展方式转变。

Considering the change of domestic and international factors affecting China＇s economic growth,this paper uses a computable general equilibrium model（DRCCGE Model） to simulate three scenarios of China＇s economic growth in the future.The results show that the economic growth rate of China is expected to reach about 8% during the 12th Five-Year Plan and in the long run China＇s economy still has the potential for rapid growth.And we also find that the main risk is the poor coordination of economic development and the high pressure of resources and environment.The transition of development pattern plays the important role in China＇s sustainable growth.