水库大坝防洪风险评价及入库洪水随机模拟

Flood risk evaluation of reservoir dam and stochastic simulation of inflow flood

由于水文因子是影响调洪最高水位的主要因素,入库洪水随机模拟为大坝防洪风险评价中重要的一项。文中运用随机理论研究入库洪水特性,分析入库洪水特征参数,研究峰量关系,模拟洪水随机过程,通过随机组合得到各种可能的随机洪水。

The hydrological factor is the main influence factor of the highest flood regulation level,the stochastic simulation of reservoir inflow flood is an important part in dam flood risk evaluation.The paper studies the inflow flood characteristics by stochastic theory,analyzes the characteristic parameters of reservoir inflow flood and the relationship between flood peak and discharge,simulates the stochastic flood process and obtains several stochastic floods by the stochastic combination.