农村金融资产对农业产业化发展的贡献差异分析——以黑龙江省为例

Analysis of Differences in Contribution of Rural Financial Assets to Agricultural Industrialization——A Case Study of Heilongjiang Province

为了了解农村金融资源配置方向和利用效率的问题,本文通过建立多元回归模型,利用ADF法检验变量平稳性和Johansen极大似然估计法对各变量进行协整检验,对1987-2008年黑龙江省农村金融资产中各类农村金融资源对农业产业化发展长期贡献差异进行了详细的实证分析。研究结果表明,农业贷款对农民收入和农业总产值的弹性系数分别为0.326和0.642,农村居民储蓄存款对二者的弹性系数分别为0.600和0.553,农业贷款和农村居民储蓄存款对农业产业发展长期贡献大;农业存款对二者的弹性系数分别为-0.220和-0.318,说明大量的农业存款被转移出了农业领域;1999年之前,乡镇企业贷款对乡镇企业总产值长期贡献较大,2000年之后贷款投向"非农化"趋势增强,长期贡献较小。

To understand directions of rural financial resources allocation and efficiency,it analyzes the difference in long-term contribution of rural financial assets to advancing agricultural industrialization by ADF test and Johansen test from 1987-2008 in Heilongjiang Province.The result shows that the coefficient of elasticity of agricultural loans to farmers＇ income and gross output value of agriculture is respectively 0.326 and 0.642,and those of rural household savings are 0.600 and 0.553,and those of rural deposits are-0.220 and-0.318.That illustrates agriculture deposits are transferred out of the field of agriculture,and the long-term contributions of agricultural loans and rural household savings are great,and long-term contribution of township enterprises loans to gross output value is large before 1999 and after 2000.