中国对俄罗斯水果出口变化的原因——基于CMS模型的分析

The Reason Analysis on Change of China's Fruit Export to Russia——Based on CMS Model and RCA Index

运用CMS模型,分析了1996-2006年中国水果对俄罗斯出口变化的原因。结果表明,2001年以来中国水果对俄罗斯出口的增长几乎完全由于俄罗斯水果进口需求的增长引起,其贡献份额为86.85%;竞争力对中国水果的增长效应很小,仅为2.92%;产品结构对中国水果出口俄罗斯起阻碍作用,其效应为-4.25%。RCA指数的计算结果进一步表明,中国仅有苹果、宽皮柑橘和梨在俄罗斯市场具有一定的竞争力,但与其它国家同类产品相比较,也有较大的差距。基于以上研究结论,本文提出了改善中国水果出口结构、提高中国水果竞争力等对策建议。

Using CMS model,this paper carries an analyisis on the reason of the change of China＇s fruit export to Russia.The result showes that since 2001,the export growth is mainly caused by the development of Russia＇s import demand,which contributes 86.85% to China＇s export growth.Competitiveness contributes only a little to the growth（2.92%）,while the product structure deterres China＇s fruit export to Russia（-4.25%）.Through the calculation of RCA index,it reveals that except apple,pear and mandarine,China is lacking competiveness in fruit export.Even for apple,pear and mandarine,compared with other exporting countries,China＇s RCA index is only a little more than 1,which reveals that China has not strong competiveness in these kinds of fruit.Based on the above analysis,counter-measures such as improving the product structure and enhancing the competitiveness of China＇s fruit is put forward.