中国人口增长、结构变迁对扩大内需的影响研究

Impacts of Chinese Population Growth and Its Structural Changes on the Domestic Demand

人口是一国内需满足的主体,有效扩大内需必须关注人口增长下降、少子老龄化、人口城市化等趋势蕴含的机遇和挑战。本文运用现代经济学、人口学的理论和方法,基于中外经验,对人口增长、人口结构变迁对内需的影响进行了实证分析,人口增长不会破坏扩大内需。实现从以物为本到以人为本、从严格控制人口增长到允许人口适度增长的转变,应成为扩大内需的重大战略。

Population is a subject to meet the domestic demand.In promoting the domestic demand,demographic trends should be taken into account,such as declining population growth,fewer kids but ageing,urbanization,smaller families,etc.Using approaches of modern economics and demography and based on experiences both at home and abroad,this paper examines empirically the impacts of population growth and its structural changes on the domestic demand.The population growth cannot destroy China＇s domestic demand.Suggestions on expanding the domestic demand are put forward accordingly,such as people-oriented strategy of expanding the domestic demand and the optimum population growth instead of the strict birth control policy.