产业结构演替理论进展与评述

Review on the Theory of Industrial Structure Evolution

产业结构演替是一个古老的话题,但是古典和新古典经济学下的研究都没有涉及到产业结构演替的内在机制。新增长理论下许多学者讨论产业结构的内生演替规律,专业化和多样化的争论成为产业结构研究的一个热门话题。近年来,以演化经济学为基础的研究为从争论走向融合提供了思路,成为了产业结构演替理论的前沿。本文拟在厘清产业结构理论研究范式演变的基础上,对每个阶段的理论研究特色及其深刻历史背景做出相关述评,从而可以较为清晰地反映出产业结构理论研究范式转变的外在因素和内在动力,并讨论了当前产业结构理论研究争论的焦点问题——专业化与多样化,最后指出相关多样化与无关多样化的提出有助于调和专业化与多样化的争论。

Industrial structure evolution is a long and ongoing topic,but its internal mechanism is overlooked by the scholars in the epochs of Classical Economics and New Classical Economics.Under New Growth Theory,a number of scholars discuss the endogenous evolutionary law of industrial structure;and consequently,the relationship between specialization-based economy and diversification-based economy has become a hot issue.Recently,researches based on evolutionary economics provide insightful ideas to solve this debate.By clarifying the research paradigm shifts of industrial structure evolution,this paper reviews the characteristics and profound historical backgrounds of every research stage,by which the external and internal factors of research paradigms can be clearly found.The paper also discusses the frontier issue in industrial structure evolution,namely,the specialization-based economy and diversification-based economy.In the end,the paper strongly argues that the presentation of the concepts of related and unrelated variety opens a window for solving this hot debate on specialization-based economy and diversification-based economy.