雷电灾害潜在与现实易损性分析及区划研究——以黑龙江省为例

A Study on the Potential and Current Vulnerability and Regionalization for Lightning Disaster in Heilongjiang Province

提出雷电灾害的潜在易损性和现实易损性概念,利用黑龙江省1959-2008年的雷暴日资料及1999-2008年的雷电灾害资料,结合黑龙江省的经济和人口密度特征,提出了雷暴日数、雷电灾害频度、生命易损模数及经济易损模数作为雷电灾害易损性评估指标。在此基础上,采用4级区分法对各指标进行了分级,并赋予各等级如下定值:极高级为1.0,高级为0.8,中级为0.5,低级为0.2。对黑龙江省各地市4个评估指标的等级值进行加权平均,得到权重平均值作为雷电灾害易损性评估的综合评价指数。最后通过对黑龙江省各地市雷电灾害易损性进行综合评估,形成黑龙江省雷电灾害易损度区划。结果表明:哈尔滨、齐齐哈尔和绥化潜在易损度和现实易损度皆高,综合易损度为极高易损区。伊春、大兴安岭、黑河潜在易损度很高,而现实易损度最低,故综合易损度为高易损区。鹤岗、鸡西潜在易损度较低,现实易损度较高,综合易损度为中易损区;七台河潜在易损度最低,但现实易损度高,综合易损度同样为中易损区。佳木斯、双鸭山、牡丹江潜在易损度和现实易损度皆低,综合易损度为低易损区。

According to lightning disaster frequency,thunderstorm days,economic and population data of 12 cities in Heilongjiang during 1959～2008,vulnerability analysis,evaluation and vulnerability zoning of lightning disaster are made.Annual mean thunderstorm days（M）,lightning disaster frequency（P）,economic vulnerability module（D）and vital vulnerability module（L）are presented as vulnerability assessment index of thunderstorm disasters in Heilongjiang province.Based on them,the vulnerability assessment structures of thunderstorm disasters in Heilongjiang province are given.The four indices are classified into four degrees with a given value as follows：the extreme high degree is 1.0,the high degree is 0.8,the intermediate degree is 0.5,and the low degree is 0.2.The comprehensive vulnerability evaluation index of lightning disasters are obtained by adding the degree values of the four indices.Then the comprehensive vulnerability evaluation index for the twelve cities is also graded as four degrees,which are defined as the maximal damageable area,the high damageable area,the medium damageable area and the low damageable area.Finally,vulnerability zoning of the lightning disaster is obtained based on the vulnerability degree values of the twelve cities in Heilongjiang.The result shows that Harbin,Qiqihar and Suihua belong to the maximal damageable area.Yichun,Daxinganling and Heihe belong to the high damageable area.Hegan,Jixi and Qitaihe belong to the medium damageable area.The rest cities belong to the low damageable area.