亚洲国家地震生命损失的标度律及中长期预测研究

Scaling Laws of Earthquake Fatalities and Longterm Forecast for Some Countries in Asia

研究了亚洲11个重要地震国家或地区(阿富汗,巴基斯坦,菲律宾,日本,伊朗,印度,印尼,中国大陆,中国华北地区,中国南北带)近代地震造成人员死亡率的自相似指数标度律,并将其应用于泊松模型中,预测2025年前亚洲重要地震国家发生地震生命损失千人、万人和十万人以上巨灾事件的概率。其中,中国大陆华北地区、日本和印尼发生万人以上死亡的巨灾概率可能较高。

This paper studied the self-similar power scaling laws of earthquake fatalities for eleven countries or regions in Asia（including Afghanistan,Pakistan,Philippines,Japan,Iran,India,Indonesia,China continent,north China and the South-North Zone of China）.The scaling laws have been used in long-term forecast of earthquake fatalities before 2025 based on the Poisson model.The results give occurrence probabilities of earthquake fatalities（≥1000,≥10000 and ≥100000 persons） for eleven countries or regions in Asia.Specially Japan,Indonesia,and north China would have higher occurrence probabilities of earthquake fatalities of more than 10000 persons.