摘要
本文利用1994-2008年的季度时间序列数据,在VAR模型的基础上,运用单位根检验、协整分析、格兰杰因果检验和方差分解等技术分析人民币实际汇率对中国进出口贸易的影响。分析结果表明,人民币实际汇率变动是影响中国进出口贸易的重要因素,马歇尔-勒纳条件在中国是成立的。从短期来看,人民币实际汇率变动是影响出口贸易的主要因素;然而从长期来看,国外需求的变动是影响出口贸易变动的主要因素。
The intention of this paper is to examine and compare the long-run bilateral price（exchange rate） and income elasticities between China and his major trading partners,that is,to investigate the responses in real exports and real imports to exchange rates and output.We use the techniques of unit root test,co-integration test,and variance decomposition based on the vector autoregressive model.The results suggest that RMB real exchange rate is the important factor which affect the exports,however,in the long term,the foreign demand changes is the dominate factor affecting the exports fluctuations.
出处
《金融理论与实践》
北大核心
2011年第1期52-56,共5页
Financial Theory and Practice
基金
教育部人文社会科学项目"中国金融风险防范问题研究"(10YJA790085)阶段性成果
