江苏人口发展水平评价研究——基于综合指数评价法

Evaluation of Population Development in Jiangsu Province——Based on the Method of Synthetic Index

以人口数量、人口质量、人口结构、人口环境为二级指标,人口密度、婴儿死亡率等为三级指标,构建了江苏人口发展水平指标体系,运用综合指数评价法,对江苏省13个省辖市的人口发展状况进行评价。运用聚类分析法将13个市的人口发展水平分成很好、较好、一般、较差、很差5个类别,并对各个类别的城市进行评析。最后给出江苏除了要发展经济外,政府更应该重视民生、环境、教育、医疗卫生、就业率、农业生产的应对建议,同时也针对各类别城市提出人口发展方面的建议。

By taking the quantity,quality,structure,environment involved with the population as the second indicators,while the population＇s density,infant mortality rate and so on as the third ones,the paper sets up an index system of Jiangsu＇s population development.It then uses its synthetic indexes to evaluate the population development of 13 prefecture-level cities in the province.Cluster analysis is used to divide the cities into five categories from high to low level,and assessment is made on them respectively.Finally the proposal is given that the province should attach great importance to people＇s livelihood,environment,education,health care,employment and agricultural industry besides economic development,and suggestions are respectively given for each of the city category.