贵州城市化水平与耕地面积的动态关系及协调度

The Dynamic Relationship between Urbanization and Farmland in Guizhou Province and its Coordination

针对贵州经济发展中出现的城市化与耕地资源保护形成矛盾的突出问题,分别利用协整理论和协调度指标对贵州省1982-2008年城市化水平与耕地面积的关系及其协调度进行实证分析,结果表明:贵州耕地面积与城市化水平之间存在协整关系,且二者呈负相关。随着城市化水平提高,耕地面积减少,城市化发展是耕地变化的单向G ranger原因。大部分年份的耕地资源与城市化水平协调度呈调和型,耕地资源保持在承载力阈值内,短期内可接受。

According to the conflict between urbanization and farmland protection in Guizhou＇s economic development,the paper empirically analyzed the provincial relationship between urbanization and farmland from 1978 to 2008 by using co-integration theory and the coordination degree indicators.The result of this study shows a co-integration relation between urbanization level and farmland in the province,in which negative correlation is found.Along with the urbanization level increasing and arable land decreasing,the urbanization is the Granger cause of the farmland change.The coordination degree of urbanization level and farmland assumes the type of concessions in most ages.Farmland resources are kept within threshold value of bearing,which is accepable in a short time.