国际金融危机缘起之争与后危机时期中国的应对

Controversies over the Causes of the Global Financial Crisis and China's Strategies in the Post-crisis Era

对于突然爆发并迅速蔓延的国际金融危机的起因,学者们有许多不同的解释。在许多方面,中外学者有着共识。但是,近来某些学者提出了贸易盈余国增强了贸易赤字国的流动性,从而引起资产泡沫并引发危机的说法。这种国际贸易失衡与流动性过剩假说极易演变成新的贸易保护主义的论点。在后金融危机时期这极可能成为持续影响中外贸易格局、进而影响中国经济增长的一个重要因素。中国应该自身贸易、产业发展的角度出发,做好长远的应对准备。

Scholars have attributed the outburst and rapid spread of the current global financial crisis to different and causes although they have come to the similar conclusions in some aspects.Some scholars recently argued that trade surplus countries aggravated the liquidity in trade deficit countries and contributed to the asset bubbles in the latter,which triggered the crisis.This hypothesis of trade imbalance and excessive liquidity could easily evolve into trade protectionism.This is very likely to become one of the major factors that will influence China＇s foreign trade and its economic growth as well.China should consider its long-term trade and industrial development and make appropriate preparations.