基于变异系数-AHP的经济评价模型及中国十五期间实证研究

The Economic Evaluation Model Based on the Coefficient of Variation and AHP and Empirical Research during the 10th Five-Year of China

根据"坚持以人为本,全面、协调、可持续的发展"的科学发展观的内涵,通过经济指标的海选、筛选和理性分析构建了经济综合评价指标体系。用客观赋权的变异系数法和主观赋权的AHP法组合确定指标最优权重,并利用灰色关联理论对指标进行评分,建立了基于科学发展观的经济综合评价模型,并对"十五"期间中国的经济状况进行实证分析。本文的创新与特色有四点:一是通过将可观测的人均准绿色GDP纳入评价体系间接反映了绿色GDP,解决了现阶段中国经济评价因绿色GDP指标的缺失而不能反映科学发展观的问题,改变了现有评价没有考虑经济增长对环境伤害的缺点;二是通过人均财政收入等人均经济成果占有量的评价,反映科学发展观以人为本的核心,摒弃了世界环境与发展委员会等权威机构在评价人均占有量的同时又评价经济总量的做法;三是通过可持续发展指标和经济结构的评价,反映科学发展观全面协调可持续的基本要求;四是通过GDP增长率、固定资产投资增长率等适中指标理想值标准的设定,解决了现有评价片面认为这些指标越大越好或越小越好的不合理问题。

According to the scientific outlook on the human-oriented,comprehensive,coordinated and sustainable development,this paper constructs a comprehensive economic evaluation index system through extensive selection,screening and rational analysis of economic indicators.It determines the optimal weights of indicators by combining variation coefficient method and AHP method optimally,grades the indicators by using Grey Relation Theory,and then establishes a comprehensive evaluation model of economy to analyze the development of china？ˉs economy during the 10th Five-Year Plan.This paper makes innovative contributions in four aspects.First,Green GDP is indirectly reflected through the index system which incorporates the measurable prospective Green GDP per capita,thus solving the problem that the existing evaluations of China？ˉs economy fail to reflect the scientific concept of development issues due to lack of Green GDP and to consider the harms that economic growth brings to the environment.Second,the ＂people-oriented＂ core of scientific outlook on development is reflected through evaluating the per capita share of such economic results as per capita income,rather than evaluating the per capita economic results and total economy as is conducted by World Commission on Environment and Development and other authoritative agencies.Third,the claim of Scientific Outlook on Development ＂comprehensive,coordinated and sustainable development＂ is reflected through evaluating the indicators for sustainable development and economy？ˉs structure.Fourth,ideal value standards of moderate indicators such as GDP growth rate and fixed assets growth rate are determined to correct the irrational assumption underlying the existing evaluation that the bigger or the smaller indicators？ˉ values are,the better effect there will be.