中国城镇居民消费实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of Urban Residents' Consumption in China

金融危机爆发以来,我国政府坚持采取扩大内需的方针,有效地拉动了经济增长。然而,居民消费需求能否实现持续增长则是这一问题的关键。通过建立消费假说及其模型,从消费函数角度对中国城镇居民消费与收入关系分析得出,目前城镇居民的消费行为符合持久收入假说,但消费者的消费行为并不完全是由当期收入水平决定,而是从他可以支配的和预期全部收入的角度来进行合理消费的。政府应做好以下工作来促进居民消费持续增长,即增加城镇居民收入,提高居民实际消费能力;加大对民生领域和社会事业支持保障力度,为城镇居民消费建立一个稳定的社会环境;积极推广消费信用制度,促进城镇居民消费档次的提高。

Since the outbreak of financi,＇d crisis, the Chinese government upholds the policy of expanding domestic demand to promote economic growth effectively. The key, however, is whether residents＇ consumption demand can keep its sustainable growth. Through building the consumption hypothesis mad model, the author analyzes the relationship between consumption and income of Chinese urban residents based on consumptian function, and concludes that now the urban residents＇ consumption behavior conforms to permanent inL come hypothesis, i.e. their consumption behavior is not determined by current revenue but by controllable and anticipated total revenue. The government should fulfill the following works to promote sustainable growth of residents＇ consumption, viz., increasing urban resi- dents＇ income to improw; actual consumption, guaranteeing livelihood and social programs to build a stable social environment for re＇ban residents＇ consumption, trod actively expanding consumption credit system to advance the urban residents＇ consumption.