“先知”之惑——犯罪预测局限性研究

Research on Limitation of Crime Prediction

犯罪规律的复杂性,犯罪预测主客体间的博弈,犯罪现象的不确定性以及"测不准",导致了犯罪预测的一系列局限。基于犯罪预测的"社会反应",是一种博弈甚或试错的过程。无论是针对犯罪现象的整体预测,还是针对犯罪行为的个体预测,对预测结果的利用都需充分考虑预测误差乃至预测失误的可能。任何依据犯罪预测结果的社会反应,都应是可调整、可修正和可补救的,且不得以侵害社会,尤其是个人的正当权利为代价。即便犯罪预测能够做到准确无误,先发制人式的"预先处罚"也当严格禁止。

The complexity of law of crime, the game between subject and object of crime prediction, and the uncertainty of crime led to a series of limitations of crime prediction. Social reactions according to results of crime prediction are a process of game to some extent. Therefore, any social reaction according to result of crime prediction should give full consideration to the possibility of prediction error and get ready for adjustment, amendment and remedies. Moreover, no social reaction is allowed to damage public interests or legitimate rights of the individual even for the purpose of crime prevention. Even if we could have predicted crime accurately, pre - punishment should be strictly prohibited in the field of criminal justice.