个人账户养老金缺口的精算模型与实证研究

An Actuarial Model and Empirical Analysis of the Fund Gap of IRA

利用精算技术,首先给出个人退休账户缺口的测算模型,然后根据模型进行理论和实证分析.结果发现:现行的个人账户制度存在较高的额外收益和较大的缺口,无论退休年龄多少,参保人员普遍受益,但受益程度和缺口大小不均.缺口产生的根本原因在于可继承性和无限延续性.此外还有其他的影响变量:主要是记账利率和投资收益率.另外通过实证研究发现,现行的个人账户制度关于计发月数规定在实际操作中存在着不能与记账利率,平均剩余寿命相匹配的问题.并提出了各地必须在计发月数规定上建立起与利率及平均剩余寿命相适应的调整机制的建议.

This paper first establishes a model of the fund gap of individual account for endowment insurance in China using actuarial methods.Then it gives an empirical analysis based on the model.The result shows：the existing system of individual accounts of the additional has a high benefit,regardless of the number of retirement age.Retirees generally benefit from the insurance,but the degree of benefit is inequality.So this also brings about the fund gap of IRA.The fundamental reason for this is inheritable and unlimited pension. In addition,the effects of other variables include accounting interest rates and rate of return on investment.The fund gap of IRA will be decreased if the distance between accounting interest rates and rate of return on investment is increased.In addition,through empirical study this paper finds that the existing system of personal accounts has a problem which division factor can＇t match with account interest rates and average remaining life.Then this paper gives a suggestion that corresponding adjustment mechanism to division factor be established in our country.