浙江省物流运输与农业经济增长关系的协整分析

Co-integration Analysis of the Relationship between Logistics Transportation and Economic Growth of Agriculture in Zhejiang Province

选取浙江省1978~2008年的货运量、客运量和第一产业生产总值作为分析指标,运用协整分析的计量方法对浙江省客货运输量与第一产业生产总值进行分析,在对时间序列进行平稳性检验后,对货运量与农业生产总值的关系和客运量与农业生产总值的关系进行了回归分析,对货运量和客运量与农业生产总值的关系进行了Granger因果检验。结果表明,浙江省物流运输显著促进农业经济发展;浙江省农业经济的发展对物流运输量的促进作用不显著。

The thesis selects freight volume and passenger capacity from 1978 to 2008 in Zhejiang Province and the total output value of the primary industry as the object of research,uses quantitative method of co-integration analysis to analyze the freight volume and passenger capacity,and the total output value of the primary industry in Zhejiang Province.After the stationary test of the time sequence,I conduct the regression analysis of the relationship between freight volume and the total output value of agriculture,and the relationship between passenger capacity and the total output value of agriculture.In addition,I conduct Granger causality test of the relationship between freight volume and passenger capacity,and the total output value of agriculture.The results shows that the transportation of Zhejiang Province has promoted the development of agricultural economy prominently,and the development of agricultural economy plays indistinctive role in promoting the transportation volume in Zhejiang Province.