基于云模型的船员适任性综合评价

Cloud Model Based Comprehensive Evaluation of Seafarers' Competency

为处理海上交通安全人的因素评价中抽象概念和定性语言的不确定性,通过深入分析其本质特点,结合改进的云理论,提出了一种新的基于云模型的综合评价方法,用于船员的适任性评价。该方法利用云模型对不确定信息处理的优势,最大限度地保留整个适任性评估过程中固有的不确定性,将定性定量变量进行云变换得到各个评价指标的概念云模型,然后通过概念"软与"操作激活相应规则后件,最终采用云模型计算得到基于云滴分布的综合评价结果。仿真研究表明,基于云模型的综合评价方法用于船员适任性评价是可行有效的,该方法使得评价内容更加丰富,评价结果直观,灵活、可靠,符合人类思维和推理方式。

In order to treat uncertainties of the abstract concepts and qualitative information in evaluating human elements for maritime safety,a novel comprehensive evaluation method for evaluating seafarer＇s competency based on cloud models is presented,where inherent uncertainties in the complex system are kept in greatest degree,thanks to the advantage of the cloud theory.By cloud modeling different attribute factors,whether qualitative or quantitative variables,optimal cloud models of each factor are found,and the post-condition clouds of the corresponding rule are activated by soft-and operation.Final evaluation result is obtained,which is depicted by the distribution of cloud drops.The effectiveness and superiority of the proposed solution is demonstrated in evaluating seafarer＇s competency,and simulation research shows that the synthetic assessment method based on cloud models is practicable for assessing seafarer＇s competency.The contents of evaluation are more enriched and the results are more intuitive,flexible,reliable and consistent with human thinking and reasoning modes.