人民币升值带来的财富幻觉探讨

The Wealth Illusion of RMB Appreciation

本文从我国现有的外汇管理制度和面临的特殊发展阶段及发展背景出发,指出人民币对外升值对内贬值将是我国现阶段和未来所面临的一种重要现象。人民币升值及其升值预期将带来我国外汇储备快速积累,在结售汇制度下发生货币倍增效应,给我国带来明显的财富效应;人民币对内贬值即通货膨胀扩大了我国GDP的规模和国际排名,也给我国带来了财富效应。本文指出人民币对外升值对内贬值带来的财富效应在一定程度上是一种财富幻觉,并对这种情况下的宏观经济政策提出了对策建议。

Considering the current foreign exchange management system and the development stage of Chinese economy,this paper declares that the tendency of RMB appreciation in foreign exchange market and depreciation in domestic financial market will continue in the near future.RMB appreciation and its anticipation have induced fast increase of foreign exchange reserve,which will produce superfluous money supply and obvious wealth effect.Meanwhile,the depreciation of RMB,namely the inflation,will expand the scale of nominal GDP and advance economic status of China in the world,which will also bring on wealth effect.The author confirms that the wealth effect brought by RMB appreciation in foreign exchange market and depreciation in domestic financial market is a wealth illusion,and accordingly gives some suggestions on macro economic policy.