摘要
随着世界经济缓慢复苏,国内经济运行朝宏观调控的预期方向发展,通胀预期逐渐强化。本文在借鉴国内外研究成果的基础上,根据费雪方程和无偏预期理论,从短期名义利率(银行间同业拆借利率)中分离出通货膨胀预期和Ex-ante实际利率,对通胀预期进行了分析和预测,并使用Ex-ante实际利率与主趋势的偏离程度衡量我国货币政策实施效果,针对我国加强通胀预期管理提出了完善调查监测制度、完善信息披露机制、加大央行票据发行力度、建立适合我国国情的通胀目标制等政策建议。
With the fragile global recovery of world economy,Chinese economy is proceeding in the direction intended by the macroeconomic management policies and inflation expectation is also strengthened.According to the Fisher Equation and the Unbiased Expectations Theory,this paper decomposes inflation expectation and Ex-ante real interest rate component from China＇s nominal short-term interest rate（IBOR）.The bias between Ex-ante real interest rate and trend component is used as a useful indicator of China monetary policy trends.Analysis and forecasting on inflation expectation is conducted and policy suggestion is put forward to strengthen inflation expectation management.
出处
《南方金融》
北大核心
2010年第12期31-35,共5页
South China Finance
关键词
通胀预期
名义利率
宏观调控
Inflation Expectation
Nominal Interest
Macro Control
