我国大豆出口影响因素实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of Influencing Factor on China's Soybean Exports

我国种植大豆的历史悠久,总产量和出口量曾占世界市场份额的90%以上,与美国、巴西、阿根廷并列为世界四大大豆生产大国。基于引力模型,选取2008年我国大豆出口截面数据作为因变量,各国和各地区的GDP、人均GDP、我国与各国的的地理距离等数据作为自变量,实证分析了我国大豆出口的影响因素,证实了各进口国和地区的人均GDP与我国大豆出口呈正相关,进口国和地区的GDP和人均消费能力的增长在一定程度上有利于我国大豆的出口增长,而距离与我国大豆出口负相关。为提升我国大豆出口竞争力,应开拓市场,加强对外联系,增加对大豆的科研投入,减少大豆的生产成本,挖掘我国大豆的绿色能量。

With a long history of soybean cultivation,China and the United States,Brazil,Argentina list as the four major soybean producing countries in the world.China＇s soybean production and exports have accounted for cover 90% of world market.It based on gravity model,selected the specific amount of soybean exports from China as the dependent variable,using the each national and regional GDP,each per capita GDP,and the geographical distance data of China and other countries and regions as independent variables,empirical analysis of the impact of China＇s soybean export factors,confirmed that per capita GDP of importing countries and regions were positively correlated with our country＇s soybean exports,the growth of their GDP and capacity per capita consumption was benefit to conductive to the soybean＇s export,while the distance has a negative correlation with soybean exports.To improve China＇s soybean exports competitiveness,we should open up new consumption markets,enhance evternal links to increase investment in soybean research,reduce the cost of production,and mining the green energy of soybeans.