上海市经济增长与环境污染关系的实证研究

以上海市1986—2007年三类环境污染指标为研究样本,从时序维度对上海市人均GDP与环境污染之间的关系进行实证研究。研究发现上海市人均GDP与工业固体废弃物产生量、工业废水排放量呈正N型曲线关系,倒U型环境库兹涅茨曲线在上海不能成立;人均GDP与工业SO2排放量的曲线关系不明显。Grangery因果关系检验表明,人均GDP的变化是固体废弃物产生量变化的格兰杰原因;人均GDP的变化是SO2排放量变化的格兰杰原因;但人均GDP的变化不是工业废水排放量的格兰杰原因;工业固体废弃物排放量、SO2排放量、工业废水排放量都不是上海市人均GDP变化的格兰杰原因,意味着上海市经济水平不断提高的同时,伴随着环境质量的不断恶化,而工业三废的排放量对上海人均GDP几乎没有影响。

We empirical study the relationship between environmental pollution and per capita GDP of Shanghai from the perspective of time series by using three types of indicators of environmental pollution the period 1986—2007 data.The study found that Shanghai＇s Environmental Kuznets Curve is shaped as N,not inverted U.Finally,the article Granger causality test shows that changes in per capita GDP of Shanghai are the Granger causes of Changes in sulphur dioxide and industrial solid waste emissions,but the contrary is not established.And the wastewater emissions is not the Granger causes of the Changes in per capita GDP of Shanghai.It means that the economic of Shanghai is increasing while the environment quality is worsen.